The Great Game, Pt. III?

Something important happened last week, and it hasn't really registered yet. How important? I can't say. But I think it's noteworthy.

Last week, the US military was told to pack up and leave the airbase in Uzbekistan. The base (specifically Karshi-Khanabad airbase, I assume built by the Soviets) was being used extensively by the US for it's operations in Afghanistan. It's possible Uzbekistan's president, the loathesome Islam "I like my dissidents boiled in oil" Karimov may reconsider, but it's unlikely.

The way the New York Times reports it, you'd believe this was all a dispute over human rights abuses. Indeed, Karimov is a pretty loathsome fella - the crack above about boiling people in oil is no joke. But let's be serious - the US has never let human rights abuses get in the way of the military necessities. It is possible that Karimov decided that the US was getting too pushy, but actually kicking the US off an airbase is a pretty precipitous move. Most thugs usually find ways of dealing with American human rights complaints short of that.

So what was behind Uzbekistan's move? Well, while we were all bopping to Live 8, a group called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, was demanding that the US withdraw from Central Asia. Four weeks later, the US gets the boot from Uzbekistan. So who makes up this apparently powerful group, SCO? The governments of Russia, China, and the "Russian 'Stans", including Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, where the US has airbases. I think that - human rights disputes aside - Karimov took a look at a map, and realized that whatever Uzbekistan had, Russia and China will always be bigger customers than the US. When Russia and China said "jump", this is Karimov's way of saying "High enough?"

Put more clearly, the US just lost an important (albeit not crucial) ally to pressure from a third party. And Uzbekistan was important to the prosecution of the war in Afghanistan - the other base the US has been using in Kyrgyzstan is much further away, and the new Kyrgyz president has also emphatically endorsed the demands of the SCO. He's also said he doesn't intend to kick the Americans out, however. Whether he holds to that position will be interesting to see, given that China, Russia, and even Uzbekistan itself can apply a great deal of pressure to tiny Kyrgyzstan.

So is this the start of a new round of competition for energy resources in Central Asia? If it is, then China and Russia have just scored a home run in the first inning. There's been some thought that democratic India might be able to act as a counterweight to China - and that this is behind recent American moves to shore up relations with New Delhi. However, the Americans should realize that in this fight, they're on their own. India needs oil and gas as much as the next rapidly-growing economy, and isn't going to jeopardize their supply just because the Americans need something.

Back in the bad old days, the "Great Game" was what they called British and Russian competition for control of Central Asia. Some labelled the US-Soviet conflict in Afghanistan a "Second Great Game." Are we seeing act 3? Despite the post title, I'm not sure. It could be this all blows over. It could be that I'm overreacting. But...

But... I just finished reading a biography of the British Prime Minister Herbert Henry Asquith, the man who led Britain through the first half of World War I. One of the things that struck me was the sheer number of "near misses" that happened before the crisis which started the Great War. Going back to 1905 and even further, there were a number of events that people were worried would start the general war they all expected. With all the talk of the new Cold War with China, I'm afraid that if we start on this new Great Game, we'll just be repeating a very, very sad story. Albeit with a new, much flashier ending.