Russia May Stop Exporting Energy Sources By 2010 - Expert
and
Russia's Oil Exports Reach Maximum, Decline to Start in 2 Years
This is big - Russia just announced last week a deal to construct a 4,130km-long pipeline to Nakhodka on the pacific (rather than the Chinese-preferred route through Manchuria) which will supply, in theory, 80 million tons of oil per year. Japan has agreed to pony up almost all of the $7 billion cost of the pipeline. However, Japan is going to want a long life out of that pipeline in order to pay off the investment, and one wonders how much they'll be able to expect.
Now, obviously Russia isn't going to stop exporting entirely - rather, it will become a net importer. However, the two "final frontiers" of oil have been the Russian far east and the Caspian sea. China, South Korea and Japan would obviously love to have a ready supply of oil in the Russian far east. However, if this news is correct, then the supply they can rely on from the big bear is less than they think.
Of course, I can't write about this and not mention China a bit more. Short story - they'll be pissed for a while, but they'll get over it. Beijing would have loved to have a pipeline that ended in Daqing, not too far from Beijing itself actually, but that was really a bit of a pipe dream (pun only kind of intended.) The route Russia has settled on a) keeps the entire length of the pipeline under Moscow's control, and b) goes to a Pacific port, meaning Russia can deal with not just China, but China, Japan, South Korea, and even the US. Hell, Indonesia is looking like it's going to start importing oil soon, and they're a member of OPEC! Obviously, Russia is looking to be one of Asia's premier gas stops. And I should say that I could very likely be jumping the gun - both articles note that Russia still has huge unexplored areas that have serious oil potential. Interestingly, this will be one of the few overseas sources of oil which won't have to travel through the straits of Malacca, which have actually seen a resurgence of piracy in the last five years. Arr, matey!
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I'd actually read the foreign affairs article, but there's also an article from the Atlantic Monthly (I think) that William Langwiesche expanded in to a book called The Outlaw Sea, which deals with a lot of the same material. The funniest story in the book was when India arrested a pirate crew, brought them back to Indian shores, realized that piracy wasn't a crime in India, then re-arrested them for entering India illegally. That the men had been brought in by the government was seemingly unimportant.
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