Is it unseemly for me to say "We told you so"? Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman said yesterday that OPEC no longer has control over oil prices. I said much the same thing in February 2005*, and many, many people were saying it before me. OPEC effectively lost control of pricing once the price spike began in 2002 (production increases did nothing to slow the price increase) and really lost control when production flat-lined in 2004.
Extrapolate whatever causes you like, but the reality is that the oil market has been producing flat-out for about two years at this point. Oh, and oil hit $78 yesterday.
*That post is mostly about slagging Orson Scott Card, but I do talk about oil production in there.