Juan Cole Is Smarter Than I

Not surprising, really. However, I find that he and I are on the same wavelength. I've argued before that the US should just leave Iraq. There's nothing more they can accomplish in Iraq, save raising the body count. Juan Cole argues the same, thought he comes to a different conclusion than I, with the eloquent post title "Sometimes You Are Just Screwed."

There are simply too few US troops to fight the guerrillas. There are only about 70,000 US fighting troops in Iraq, they don't have that much person-power superiority over the guerrillas. There are only 10,000 US troops for all of Anbar province, a center of the guerrilla movement with a population of 820,000. A high Iraqi official estimated that there are 40,000 active guerrillas and another 80,000 close supporters of them. The only real explanation for the successes of the guerrillas is that the US military has been consistently underestimating their numbers and abilities. There is no prospect of increasing the number of US troops in Iraq.

...

The guerrilla tactic of fomenting civil war among Iraq's ethnic communities, which met resistance for the first two years, is now bearing fruit. There is increasing evidence of Shiite murders of Sunni clerics and worshippers, and of Sunni attacks on Shiites, beyond the artificial efforts of the guerrillas themselves. Civil war and turbulence benefit the guerrillas, who gain cover for violent attacks, and who can offer themselves to the Iraqis as the only force capable of keeping order. AP reports an Iraqi official saying today that there is a civil war going on in the northern city of Telafar between Sunnis and Shiites. I doubt US television news is even mentioning it.

...

Therefore, I conclude that the United States is stuck in Iraq for the medium term, and perhaps for the long term. The guerrilla war is likely to go on a decade to 15 years. Given the basic facts, of capable, trained and numerous guerrillas, public support for them from Sunnis, access to funding and munitions, increasing civil turmoil, and a relatively small and culturally poorly equipped US military force opposing them, led by a poorly informed and strategically clueless commander-in-chief who has made himself internationally unpopular, there is no near-term solution.

Well, I disagree with Cole in that I don't believe the US can protect the "Iraqi" "Government" any more than they can protect themselves. He's a smarter man than I when it comes to Middle Eastern Issues, but I'd wager he's no more of an expert in military affairs than I am. The fact is the insurgents have far greater control over the country than the US military does, right now. It's only going to get worse, barring a draft and a huge influx of soon-to-be cold bodies.

Anyway, go read the rest of Cole's post - it's (and he generally is) very good.