China's Domestic Problems

No matter what anyone says, it's impossible to predict the course China will take in the next decade. Robert Kaplan has been a big proponent of the view that China is a growing military threat to the US - as has the US realist school of international relations generally. However, I've long maintained that the most important variable will be the domestic situation in China. Between the mass migration of rural Chinese to the cities, the growing generation of wifeless young Chinese men, the environmental situation throughout China (disastrous), the political problems with Hong Kong, and on and on and on - there's so many things that are challenging the Beijing regime. This Asia Times piece has a pretty good rundown on some of the problems, and the scale involved.