China-Taiwan Commentary

From Eric Margolis.

One of Margolis' comments is that the military is under pressure to act against Taiwan. One of the interesting aspects of the People's Liberation Army, which at one time was essentially a synonym for the Communist Party, is that is it essentially the only institution of the state which has persisted for the last fifty-five years of Communist Rule.

You would think that the Party would have been pretty strong for most of that time, but Mao's occasional bout of insanity (the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution) severely weakened the party throughout the 1960s and early 1970s. Especially after the Cultural Revolution, it was the army that restored order, leaving the PLA dangerously powerful (in the eyes of party leaders.)

Given the massive military cuts of the 1980s, the PLA looked rather weak within the Chinese system for a long time. However, with the recent drive to modernize the army, navy and air force, the military has become far more powerful, politically speaking. Whether there's any possibility of an unsanctioned attack on Taiwan (like the Japanese attack on Manchuria, 1931) is totally unknown to me, but I don't think so. More powerful or not, I don't think the PLA has shown any signs of that kind of independence.