TV Speculation

With the advent of Tivo, and soon a fully-fledged Internet TV service, I think it's safe to say that the TV industry is likely to enter a period of competition similar to that of the early 1980s, when cable television networks began vivisecting the established oligarchy of the major networks.

Interestingly, this is happening at the same time as the cost of video production keeps coming down. For Attack of the Clones, Lucas used a prototype digital camera that matched the resolution of the usual film cameras. And this summer, the otherwise-forgettable Sky Captain was done entirely on blue screen.

The next step for both of these technologies is for the costs to come down - and that will take care of itself. After that, these techniques and technologies need to come out of the scifi/fantasy ghetto - something that is slowly starting to happen. I was shocked to recognize the blur of a blue-screen composite in an episode of Dawson's Creek. CGI has already finished off complex models, is working on making stuntmen obsolete, it's not long now until sets themselves are entirely obsolete.

So what happens when a quality show can be produced by a half-dozen college graduates working out of a storage locker in Mississauga? What happens when Rogers decides to cut out the networks entirely and push its own content? Such a move would (I believe) currently be illegal, but Rogers has had a talent at bending the laws to suit its needs.

The funny thing is that we literally don't have more time for media - look at the surveys. Basically, between music, television and computers, most teenagers spend 16-20 hours a day immersed in media. Biological limits apply here, but as the costs of production and distribution come down competition is just going to get more and more fierce.

Moreover, the pay-free (or as some people stubbornly call it, "illegal") ways of getting our entertainment are likely to get even more sophisticated, further eroding the television industry. So how are the large companies going to make their money in a post-broadcast world? My guess (and that's all it is) is that the cable news channels will become more important sources of revenue for the big players. After all, when you need the news, you need it now, and are probably willing to put up with advertising then. Of course, the story can't get too good, or else the network can't go to commerical in the first place - September 11th was extremely costly for CNN and the others. 72 hours with almost no commercial interruption, but the highest ratings the cable networks had had in years. How ironic.

Anyway, I can't think of much more to add. I just think this is something worth paying attention to.