Tee Hee

Business Week Online has a funny slideshow on the worst predictions of 2005. My personal favourite:

Prediction: Overproduction by OPEC could cause a steep decline in oil prices: "We are concerned about the future. We are concerned about a new severe drop in price like we have witnessed in recent days." - Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Zangeneh, Nov. 22, 2004

Reality: Oil prices were about $50 a barrel when Zangeneh fretted about a severe drop. They hit an all-time record of $70 a barrel in 2005 before easing back to "only" around $60 by yearend.

Which reminds me: On February 23, 2005, I wrote the following.

This report from Morgan Stanley makes for fascinating reading. The geniuses at this major investment firm have concluded that the price of oil is likely to stay high, because of tight supply and high demand.

Wow. How many figures do you guys pull down for that kind of analysis?

They also make a prediction of oil prices of $36/barrel by the end of the year. We'll see. Given my support of the Peak Oil hypothesis, I think we better get used to the idea of oil in range of $50, at least.

So I'll put this in writing. I predict that as of December 31st 2005, that the price of oil will not have stayed below $40 per barrel for more than one week. Let's see who's right - me or the boys at Morgan Stanley.

(Note - no financial wager is placed on this prediction. I just think it would just be really funny if an untrained student outguessed Morgan Stanley. Here's hoping!)

It turns out I was optimistic. Not only did oil not drop below $40 at all, but it did not drop below $50 for a period greater than two weeks. The price of oil is up 40% for the year.

So: Morgan Stanley 0, Me 1. And I'm just giving away stock tips for free...