21 months, 24 hours

It's 12:30am on election day, and by this time tomorrow America will have its first African-American President-elect. I think it's safe to say that most people alive today didn't think they'd be alive to see it.

I've said before that I took my time in warming to Obama. I was incredibly impressed by his 2004 speech to the DNC, but never really warmed to his policy proposals until much later. I, lamentably, thought Edwards was the superior pick early in the primaries. Again, it is to the credit and great benefit of the Union that I don't decide these things.

Since Edwards dropped out of the race, I decided to support Barack Obama for President largely out of spite -- I'd never been Bill Clinton's biggest fan, and was happy to see a strong challenger even though I assumed Hillary would win in the end. My enthusiasm grew as I saw Obama build something dramatically larger and more powerful than the usual Quixotic campaigns to unseat a party favorite.

The campaign proceeded to get ugly -- indeed, it's struck me in the last month that the primary seemed much uglier than the general -- and through it all the Obama campaign remained unstoppable, calmly collecting more dollars, more votes, and more delegates, until they won the contest.

And today they're poised to do it again.

Apparently, the town of Dixville Notch, NH, has already voted and they've voted for a Democrat for the first time since 1968 (and only the second time ever) which I'm taking as a good sign. Most of my coworkers are nervous after the trauma of the Bush years, but I'm going to go to bed and wake up early, and probably spend most of the day glued to CNN and RSS in equal measure. I will do this because I have a profound mental illness that gives me no joy whatsoever. Worst. Fetish. Ever.

Happy thoughts, everyone. Today is the beginning of the end of politics that have defined the world for the entirety of my (somewhat brief) adult life. Your disappointments with that sellout Obama can start on Nov. 5th. Today -- the next 23 hours and 10 minutes -- are for celebrating.

Sadness

HONOLULU — Barack Obama's grandmother, whose personality and bearing shaped much of the life of the Democratic presidential contender, has died, Mr. Obama announced Monday, one day before the election. Madelyn Payne Dunham was 86.

Mr. Obama announced the news from the campaign trail in Charlotte, N.C. The joint statement with his sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, said Ms. Dunham died peacefully late Sunday night after a battle with cancer.

Another 36 hours and she'd have lived to see her grandson elected.

So now he'll begin his life as President without any of his parents or grandparents. It's awful, but it almost sounds like it's supposed to be that way.

SNL does Olbermann

I know at least one of my friends doesn't like Olbermann that much, so this is for you:

Surely, we're reaching a critical shortage of crazy...

This election must have used up all the crazy by now, right? Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Chair of the American Nazi Party:

White people are faced with either a negro or a total nutter who happens to have a pale face. Personally I’d prefer the negro. National Socialists are not mindless haters. Here, I see a white man, who is almost dead, who declares he wants to fight endless wars around the globe to make the world safe for Judeo-capitalist exploitation, who supports the invasion of America by illegals--basically a continuation of the last eight years of Emperor Bush. Then, we have a black man, who loves his own kind, belongs to a Black-Nationalist religion, is married to a black women--when usually negroes who have 'made it' immediately land a white spouse as a kind of prize--that’s the kind of negro that I can respect. Any time that a prominent person embraces their racial heritage in a positive manner, it’s good for all racially minded folks.

UPDATE: Conversation with the fiancée:

Me: Okay, can I give you a quote from the American Nazi Party?

Vicki: Uh, okay...

[Get her up to speed...]

Vicki: Okay. I apparently walked out of our bathroom and in to bizarro world. I'm gonna go back in, turn the knob three times, and...

Me: Come back out in to a world where the American Nazi Party hasn't endorsed Barack Hussein Obama to be President of the United States of America?

Vicki: ...yeah.

Better Christians, please

Uh, wow. Either this is over-the-top postmodern performance art, or American Christendom is setting a new record for wackadoo:

For these and other reasons Cindy is calling for a Day of Prayer for the World’s Economies on Wednesday, October 29, 2008. They are calling for prayer for the stock markets, banks, and financial institutions of the world on the date the stock market crashed in 1929. They are meeting at the New York Stock Exchange, the Federal Reserve Bank, and its 12 principal branches around the US that day.

“We are going to intercede at the site of the statue of the bull on Wall Street to ask God to begin a shift from the bull and bear markets to what we feel will be the 'Lion’s Market,' or God’s control over the economic systems,” she said. "While we do not have the full revelation of all this will entail, we do know that without intercession, economies will crumble."

It gets better: Wonkette has pictures, and yes that's Christians worshipping at the feet of a golden bull.

I don't need Christian fundamentalists to read Harry Potter or agree with me on abortion, but could they at least read the fucking Bible? I'll drop my Exodus-based objections to this stunt on the grounds that maybe they only read the New Testament. But can I just point out that if you believe the documentary evidence, Jesus' relations with moneychangers were... frosty, at best?

Obama's infomercial, now with video

Only the pre-recorded part, not the live bit at the end.

Comment of the day

Ha!

The best description I have seen yet of the voter who is still undecided at this point:

Person on an airplane and the flight attendant with the food cart rolls up and offers them the two choices. "Tonight we have chicken with noodles and dogshit with broken glass."

The undecided voter asks how the chicken is cooked.

Obama's infomercial

Sweet Jesus that was slick. From a purely technical standpoint, that was probably one of the best-executed events of the campaign.

Who could've imagined

Joe the Plumber and independent voter lied about being an independent, being a plumber[1] and being named Joe[2]. So of course he's a Republican.

Joe the Plumber endorsed Republican John McCain for president on Tuesday and agreed that a vote for Democratic candidate Barack Obama would be "a vote for the death of Israel."

Samuel J. Wurzelbacher gained national attention when Obama told him during a campaign stop that he wanted to "spread the wealth around." Their exchange about Obama's tax plan aired countless times on cable news programs, and McCain repeatedly cited Joe the Plumber in their third and final debate and again at campaign events....

In a McCain rally at a flag store, Wurzelbacher said he feared that Obama would turn the U.S. into a socialist nation.

"In a McCain rally at a flag store..." You've got to be fucking kidding me. Why did the press bother listening to this fella again? It's been clear from day one that he's 100% straight wingnut.

[1] I have some discomfort with the idea of declaring that because a person isn't licensed in their profession, that implies they "aren't" that. Bloggers aren't journalists (except when they are) but that doesn't imply that bloggers aren't valuable for journalists, or that they can't do journalism from time to time. So not-Joe the not-Plumber may actually do fine plumbing work, but as a convention of language he isn't a plumber in my books.

[2] This one's easy. His name is Samuel, and he goes by Joe because "Samuel" reminds him of his mom telling him to make his bed. Still, Samuel it is and we should all call him that just to piss him off.

What Draper said

Robert Draper is blogging at GQ:

The Republicans who fawned over her superstar looks are now shocked—shocked!—to learn that her much-admired wardrobe has been purchased with RNC funds. I’ve heard from one well-placed source that McCain has snubbed her on one long bus ride aboard the Straight Talk Express, to the embarrassment of those sitting nearby. It has surely been implied to the governor that she should be eternally grateful to have been plucked from obscurity. And yet the high water mark of John McCain’s campaign for the presidency unquestionably began on September 3, when Palin gave her nomination speech—and ended precisely twelve days later, when McCain went off-script—I have that on the authority of the person who participated in the writing of said script—and told an audience that he still believed the fundamentals of the economy were strong.

In the whole debate over why McCain is losing (aside from the fact that it's a Dem year and Obama's campaign is superhuman) but one of the facts that seems to be simply given is that McCain was the strongest GOP candidate of the year. I don't think that's really the case. Given the evidence of the last 8 months, isn't it clear that McCain is simply a lousy candidate? No message discipline, no credible claims as a moderate anymore, no credibility on the economy, and the charisma of a glass of lukewarm water. Mitt Romney looks better (how exotic is a Mormon running against a guy who's last name is Obama?) and so does Mike Huckabee, frankly.

McCain won not by being anyone's favourite, but by being everyone's least-hated. As Canadian Liberals have learned, that doesn't always lead to success.

America's finest news source

Ha.

WINONA, MO—After learning about the importance of zinc mining to residents in the crucial swing state of Missouri, presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama both expressed their irritation Monday over being forced to adopt a position on the issue in order to please voters. "I'll tell you what I think about zinc mining—I don't," an exasperated Obama told reporters, adding that he would reluctantly research the subject after finishing the "million other things" he had to do. "What's McCain's stance on it? I guess I'll be for it, unless he's for it, in which case I'll be against it. Either way I don't care." McCain had an identical reaction when informed that he would have to take a stance on health care, the economy, and education.

Living Small

Really interesting old piece from the Atlantic about the rise of the super-home, and how ahistorical it is:

A short history of the American house since 1950 would have to include a chapter called "Bigger and Better." The Levittown house had two bedrooms, one small bathroom, and an eat-in kitchen; all its rooms were arranged on a concrete slab whose dimensions were twenty-five by thirty feet (an unfinished attic was often converted into additional living space). William Levitt's strategy becomes apparent if one compares his house with earlier designs for modestly priced houses, such as those included in homes of Character, a pattern book published in 1923 by the Boston architect Robert L. Stevenson. The porches, vestibules, entry halls, and dining rooms (or at least dining alcoves) that were standard domestic amenities in the twenties were absent from the Levittown house, which lacked even a basement. It was bare-bones living.

The prosperity of the next two decades was an opportunity to recover some of the lost space. Not surprisingly, new houses increased in size. In 1963 the average new house had 1,450 square feet (the Levittown house had 750 square feet), and over the next decade another 200 square feet, the equivalent of two bedrooms, were added. According to the National Association of Home Builders, the average finished area of a new single-family house in 1989 was about 2,000 square feet, and thousands of houses were even bigger, often 3,000 to 4,000 square feet.

There are a variety of reasons why these super-homes become the preferred format for new homes, and it's increasingly unpopular to build small rowhouses even in downtown cores (where the municipal governments seems to instead opt for megatowers instead.) But a lot of it is the collaboration between local government and builders, even though there's a sizeable market for a smaller home even among new families.

Three Ashleys

Sean Quinn at 538 has one of the best blogposts of the post-primary season, I think.

What Ta-Nehisi said

Here:

And now let's give credit where credit is due. Howard Dean. He caught way too much shit for that comment about Confederate Flags and pickup trucks. He was the wrong guy to execute the plan. He was right--even if he was the wrong guy to execute the strategy. Barack Obama is now the candidate of white people who say nigger, but have lost their jobs, retirement and health care. Amazing. We don't have to like each other to realize that we could all sink together.

Canadian Liberals should totally ignore any lessons that might occur to them while watching a successful, center-left party beat the ever-loving hell out of conservatives. Crazy ideas like fighting for every seat, trying to actually draw in people to your left and right, and having a 21st century fundraising apparatus are totally unsuited to the Canadian context.

Far better to go with the Liberal playbook, c. 2004-present: try to scare people about Stephen Harper, then blame the NDP when it doesn't work.

It's 10am at McCain HQ, and the phone isn't ringing

Consider how bad John McCain's last week was. On Sunday, Colin Powell (despite my opinion of him, probably the most widely respected Republican since Eisenhower) endorsed Barack Obama. By Wednesday, McCain had locked down his own important endorsement -- Al Qaeda. And on Friday, the Pittsburgh PD announced they would be filing charges against a McCain volunteer who fabricated a story about being attacked by a black male black Obama black volunteer blackity black black.

By Saturday, CNN and other outlets were running stories about the growing divide between McCain and Palin on the campaign, calling Palin a "diva" who wouldn't take direction.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that any one of these stories would have chewed up a week's worth of news cycles only 8 years ago, maybe even 4. And John McCain was hit by all of them in one week.

I can't make popcorn fast enough to keep up.

If you're looking for something to do election night...

...because drinking alone is so dull, even when you're celebrating:

Join the Democrats Abroad Canada gang for the best Party in TORONTO! Bring your friends, family, neighbors and colleagues -- watch the U.S. Presidential Election Night as it unfolds!

Super size TVs -- on two floors.

Hot assorted tapas / appetizers throughout the evening. (Full meals available for purchase.) Cash bar.

WHEN:

Tuesday, November 4, 2008
6:30 p.m. until whenever
(we’re starting earlier so we don’t miss a thing!)

WHERE:
Plaza Flamingo Restaurant (aka Plaza Obama),
423 College Street (just east of Bathurst), Toronto
$25 donation to DAC voter information / outreach efforts. Pay at the door.

But, come early. The east coast polls close at 7:00, and the race is on!

Note the donation at the door. According to Scientician and Apocalypse expert Robert Q. Farley, this race could end before 10:00 pm, so don't waste time eating, it'll just slow you down.

If you're looking for other Democrats Abroad chapters in Canada, you can see a list here.

Epic failz

One of the few arguments that Sen. Clinton's campaign ever made that actually made sense was an attack on Sen. Obama's then-high approval ratings vs. Clinton's then-lower ratings. The argument was that Obama had been relatively untouched by the GOP slime machine, and once they worked him over his numbers would be as low, if not lower, than Clinton's. It was plausible at the time, but I didn't think it was a sufficient argument for a Clinton candidacy.

It turns out, though, that even if plausible it was incorrect: Obama's approval ratings have not only held firm, they have improved over the last almost 11 months. Kos has the details.

I have been astonished to see the GOP playbook rendered totally ineffective this year. It's as if gravity itself is working against them, and I frankly couldn't be happier.

My crystal ball totally rocks. How's yours?

Me, not too long ago:

if Wall Street collapses entirely they'll deserve every bit of it and the supply of donations to the Republican party will dry up appreciably. I call it win-win.

The Washington Post, today:

Expected to be a force in the final weeks of the presidential race, outside groups and the pointed advertising they brought to the airwaves in recent campaigns are barely evident this year. Political operatives say the fact that many wealthy potential donors have shied away from investing in efforts such as the infamous Swift Boat Veterans for Truth is that they are simply too busy trying to salvage their own financial portfolios.

I make this look gooooood.

Please, Liberals, as a friend and well-wisher...*

...stop listening to Scott Reid, if you ever did.

I think we start with the voters we've just lately lost, that are most within reach. Not those we've rarely held or fall farthest away.

Mr. Dion gave us a new life in Quebec. I agree we need to work on that base and expand it. We can also reclaim support in Vancouver. And among New Canadians and the Jewish community. And we have to break out of urban Canada - that comes with a more resonant focus on the middle-class.

However, a Howard Dean-ish "50 States"-like approach to rebuilding a party that hasn't actually been torn down is a mistake in my view. To focus on the 100 seats in which we are weakest - to dedicate any substantial resources to large parts of Alberta for example - is simply poor strategy. It won't work. It will hurt and it will surely diminish our voter coalition rather than strengthen it.

Some of what Reid says is, in fact, sound tactical thinking -- especially the part about trying to get back the voters most recently lost. But re-read part of the above for me:

However, a Howard Dean-ish "50 States"-like approach to rebuilding a party that hasn't actually been torn down is a mistake in my view.

There are a number of things that strike me about this statement:

1) Scott Reid doesn't understand how bad things are for the Liberal Party of Canada at the moment.

2) More importantly, Mr. Reid has a dangerously high threshold for deciding when, exactly, the Liberal Party of Canada should make reform a serious priority.

It's #2 that interests me most. Consider two pairs of elections, one of which began the Democratic Party's shift to a 50-state strategy (2000-2004) and the Canada's most recent election and the immediately preceding one (2006-2008).

Dem. Vote in US Presidential Election
2000: 48.4%
2004: 48.3%

Liberal vote in Canadian election
2006: 30.23%
2008: 26.23%

In the US, the change in the Congressional vote is even more striking, because in 2004 the Democrats actually gained substantially vs. their turnout in 2002. Yet, despite having a party that was objectively in a much stronger position both relatively and absolutely, the Democrats (wisely, in my view) began a concerted effort to fight for areas of the country where they had not been competitive before. Given that the victory in 2006 was won on the backs of Virginia and Montana Democrats, it's clearly paid dividends.

Meanwhile, Scott Reid thinks that the Liberal Party -- which he concedes just had it's worst showing ever -- doesn't need to do anything as drastic as what the Democrats do.

No wonder we can't get serious about climate change in this country. Even when it's literally their own friggin jobs at stake, the Liberal Party has no interest in changing a losing strategy.

Just thank your lucky stars these guys went in to politics instead of firefighting.

"Ah! Somebody help me!"

"Let's not overthink things here..."

"Fuck you, my house is on fire!"

*I am actually not wildly friendly or wishing the Liberals well at this point. Fooled ya!

Has Colin Powell redeemed himself?

No. The dead aren't alive, and the guilty go unpunished.

But, redeemed or not, I'm glad Mr. Powell is around to remind the non-crazy GOP what a sane party looks like.