Wednesday, December 09, 2009

A handful of climate stuff

James Hansen is starting to look more and more prescient: in his 2007 article "Trace gases and Climate Change", he argued that previous estimate of climate sensitivity (how vulnerable the Earth's climate was to CO2 levels) understated the dangers because they failed to take in to account long-term feedbacks. He argued that a proper estimate of long-term feedbacks would add at least one degree to the 3-4 degrees of expected warming from doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. An independent British investigation has come to much the same conclusion.

Oh, how I wish President Gore had been allowed to take office.

If you'd like some depressing reading, check out the Copenhagen Diagnosis. It basically tracks with the estimate of the German report I mentioned a few weeks ago:
If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.
The 2-degree guardrail may still not be enough -- a warming of 2 degrees globally implies much more warming over Greenland and West Antarctica, perhaps sufficient (the authors say) to eventually melt the Greenland ice sheet and raise sea level by 6m or more.

I'll reserve judgment to see what happens in Copenhagen, but it's worth noting that even if the governments of the world meet their current commitments, they'll still be committing us to at least 3 degrees of warming, enough at the poles to put polar ice at serious, serious risk. And remember that Antarctica is already looking unstable.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

christian louboutin
christian louboutin shoes
discount christian louboutin
handbags
designer handbags
louis vuitton handbags
gucci handbags
discount handbags
replica handbags
Herve Leger
ugg classic tall
UGG Classic Short
UGG Ultra Tall
christian louboutin boots
discount MBT Shoes
MBT Shoes
UGG Classic Cardy
MBT Chapa shoes
MBT Sport shoes
MBT M.Walk shoes
MBT Lami shoes

liu said...

I have read your blog for many times, and I think it very wonderful. I love some of your articles, they are meaningfull. And what do you think of polo shirts, I think they are are very chic, especially the polo t shirts, I love them very much. I also like playing tennis rackets, it can keep healthy, what do you like to do in your spare time?
cheap tennis racket
discount tennis racket
prince tennis racquet
head tennis rackets
wilson tennis racket
babolat tennis racquet
polo t shirts women
polo t shirts on sale
polo t shirts for women
polo shirts on sale
polo shirts men
men's polo shirt
men polo shirt
mens polo shirts
mens polo shirt
cheap polo shirts
discount polo shirts
men's polo shirts
women's polo shirts

mamamia said...

ghd
cheap ghd
ghd straighteners
Benefit GHD
GHD IV Salon Styler
GHD MINI STYLER
GHD Precious gift
Gold GHD
Kiss GHD
New pink GHD
Pink GHD
Pure Black GHD
Pure White GHD
Purple GHD
Rare GHD
Babyliss
polo boots
polo shoes
herve leger
herve leger outlet
herve leger 2010
herve leger dresses

mamamia said...

chanelchanel iman
chanel outlet
chanel handbag
Chanel Wallet
Chanel Watch
chanel purse
Chanel Sunglasses
chanel bags
chanel earrings
chanel jewelry
chanel shoes
ralph lauren sweaters
ralph lauren hoodies
ralph lauren shirt
ralph lauren shirts
polo shirts
polo shirt
ralph lauren polo shirts
mens polo shirt
ralph lauren polo
lacoste polo shirts
ralph lauren outlet
lacoste polo
dog polo shirt

polo shirts said...

History of polo ralph lauren. Polo fashions had its humble beginnings in 1968 when tie salesman Ralph Lauren gave it a kick start. By 1969 he had a boutique polo ralph lauren factory stores within the Manhattan department store Bloomingdale's. ... Brands and luxury standard. Since Ralph Lauren's first brand, Polo Ralph Lauren, was launched, the company has expanded to include a variety of luxury brands such as Polo Golf, Polo Denim, Polo Sport. You can buy cheap Ralph Lauren Clothing at Ralph Lauren outlet.Also We provide polo shirts
Ralph Lauren polo shirt, 50% OFF! polo ralph lauren outlet online is your best choice!In 2006, polo ralph lauren outlet became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournament. As part of this year's event, which starts next week, polo ralph lauren sale will introduces the first ... determination to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world. The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance, drawing on our rich history and traditions