Thursday, September 24, 2009

So it's all been worthwhile then

Another note on that EKOS poll: Liberal supports stands basically where it was (nationally) after the 2006 election, or just a bit under. So despite having jettisoned two leaders, the country is basically as unimpressed with the party as they were when they elected Prime Minister Harper. If Ignatieff drops a bit further, he'll be well and truly in Dion territory (26% last election.) Alternately, he could almost be there now (the margin of error being what it is.)

Scott Tribe notes in comments that polls are snapshots, fickle beasts, etc etc. And he's quite right! Any individual poll is, in itself, meaningless. But my point is that we've seen a steady erosion in Liberal support since Ignatieff's announcement that he couldn't support the Harper government anymore.

The larger point, one that Chet has made time and time again, is that Canadian politics has been in a stunning kind of paralysis, especially since 2006 but arguably since 2004. All the sound and fury has truly signified nothing -- the Liberals have changed leaders, the other parties haven't, there's been a handful of scandals, rising stars in both parties have been privileged or humbled -- but the facts on the ground don't change.

If I were leading a political party in the Canadian parliament right now, I'd want to see damn good evidence that something major and structural was changing in my favour before I made a move. I politely submit that anyone claiming to see something like that in the Liberals' favour is either a) wrong, b) lying, or c) reading the contemporary equivalent of chicken entrails and tea leaves.

1 comment:

CanadianSense said...

I don't understand the strategic benefit of attacking the CPC on EAP after supporting it.

Today Iggy used the wrong open field for a backdrop suggesting the CPC are too slow for a park?

The province, municipal government is on board for this park. Today the Burlington May Cam Jackson is now defending EAP on tv!

I don't get how those optics are going to benefit the Liberals.

If they were attack EAP spending money on fixing a fountain or a hotel in the PM had ownership riding that would be a great example. Slamming the burlington park was a mistake.