In the past several hours, Dems I’ve spoken with and who’ve flooded my inbox are energized. A woman friend and Democrat who had not worked for Obama’s campaign: “I am volunteering tomorrow.” An Obama organizer who was operating on fumes five months ago: “They are not getting away with this. 10 hours of call time tomorrow.” A shorter read of the mood: “Let’s get it on.”And I don't see this playing out any differently. McCain's convention bounce starts now, but the people he'll win are largely the people he already started to consolidate last week when he named Palin as his Veep. Ergo, his bounce will be shallower than Obamas, meaning Obama keeps his lead in to mid-September, even assuming McCain/Palin does well over the next few weeks.
The mockery went too far. They played the “Obama doesn’t love America, just himself” card, over and over and over. For people already inclined to believe that (i.e., the hardcore Republican base), the speech was a smashing success. Maybe they will work a little harder, volunteer a few more hours, dig a little deeper into their pockets. But so will partisan Dems, who are far more plugged into watching the election coverage....
Fire up both bases equally, it’s not even close. Obama wins going away. In 2008, there are so many more Democrats, numerically.
But, let's remember that there's a whole mess of scandals coming down the river, including now-conclusive proof that Palin personally pressured the former safety commissioner of Alaska. The press will be in love with her for a day or two, but there's a drip, drip, drip here that's not going away.