Thursday, June 21, 2007

Finally, finally shrinking the Bush base!

John Rogers at Kung Fu Monkey did a post in ye olden dayes of 2005 which, I believe, conclusively established that George W. Bush's electoral base was 27%. This floor was the bare minimum of votes that Bush could expect, based on the performance of batshit-crazy Republican Alan Keyes. Sayeth John and his friend Tyrone:
John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is --

Tyrone: 27%.

John: ... you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone: Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.


John: You realize this leads to there being over 30 million crazy people in the US?

Tyrone: Does that seem wrong?
Well, good news everybody, because Bush has moved in to the basement! Only 26% of Americans now say they approve of his job approval! Huzzah!
But the 26 percent rating puts Bush lower than Jimmy Carter, who sunk to his nadir of 28 percent in a Gallup poll in June 1979. In fact, the only president in the last 35 years to score lower than Bush is Richard Nixon. Nixon’s approval rating tumbled to 23 percent in January 1974, seven months before his resignation over the botched Watergate break-in.

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