Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Ouch. Bad Poll.

From Strategic Counsel.
* Liberals: 29 per cent (- 8)
* Conservatives: 34 per cent (+ 3)
* NDP: 14 per cent (none)
* Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (none)
* Green Party: 12 per cent (+ 5)
So we've got the Greens neck-and-neck for third place, outpolling the Bloc Quebecois!!!, 2 points behind the NDP. And yet, if the numbers are to be believed, the Greens are actually sapping voters from the Liberals and not the NDP. Interesting.

I've been thinking recently that the media, and prominent Liberals, have been so kind to the Green Party (vocal praise by Liberals, lavish coverage by the media) as an attempt to marginalize the NDP. It seems either my theory was wrong, or it was right and just isn't working.

Anyone think Dion is going to try and take the Liberals in to a spring election with numbers like this?
Following the release of Tory attack ads aimed directly at Dion, just 18 per cent of respondents thought the Liberal leader would do the best job as prime minister, compared to 36 per cent for Stephen Harper.
Layton should call the Liberals' bluff and declare that he'll vote against the budget (the content of the budget itself is immaterial at this point, right?) Then we get to see if the Liberals will actually vote to go to the polls with anemic numbers, or keep Harper in power until (and if!) Dion's numbers improve.

I actually think the Liberals might just call a sick day rather than show up and vote.

6 comments:

dougie said...

So you are happy with the fact that the NDPEE numbers are static and assume that nothing will change for the party with a forced play on the grits.With wierd political analysis like that ,it is plain to see why the cult of jack is so irrelevent now and in the future.

Politicagrll said...

The Liberals party fall is partly just the blah's after a convention.

It's likely that the Green vote will colapse to it's core voters in an election. Good for the NDP...unless of course it means a Conservative majority.

With the way Harper is campaigning i think he wants a spring election...but doesn't want to be the one to call it.

Oberlinblogger said...

I'll admit to knowing almost nothing about Canadian politics. What are the actual policy disagreements between NDP and the Libs? And why, given your focus, are you NDP not Green? Is there somewhere you'd suggest for an American to figure this stuff out?

-Sam L.

Oberlinblogger said...

And why isn't there coalitioining more often? I thought that was pretty standard in Parliamentary systems.

-Sam L.

john said...

Sam: Dunno about a good Canadian Politics FAQ.

I'm an NDPer, not a Green, because environmentalism is not the sum total of my political views. I'm also a big believer in activist government and labour rights, something the NDP and Greens don't always share.

I try not to be overly partisan -- there's plenty I disagree with the NDP on, and I've said so here -- but the NDP is the closest fit for me.

There isn't coalitioning more often in this country largely because it's not part of the democratic habits. The Liberals are used to getting majority governments, so they don't cultivate the kind of good relations needed for coalition partners. Frankly, the Liberals I've met have more loathing for the NDP than for the Conservatives.

Oberlinblogger said...

Thanks.

It sounds so much cattier and more fun than American politics. But maybe that's just me.

-Sam L.