Monday, November 06, 2006


In 2004, I really, sincerely thought Kerry would win 55-45. So I can learn one of two lessons: either make a careful, cautious prediction and be pleasantly surprised by the results, or make another optimistic prediction and be crushed.

The problem is that a bunch of major Dem bloggers are making cautious predictions. And in any case, Bush will still be President, a reality that crushes my spirits anyway. So let's aim a bit higher.

My prediction:

Representatives: +40 D
Senate: +7 D, Lieberman loses

The Senate prediction basically relies on the most optimistic possible assumptions about Democratic turnout swamping the (hopefully) demoralized and depressed GOP turnout.

The nightmare scenario, of course, is the Dems picking up 6 and Lieberman "defecting" to the GOP, making the Senate a 50/50 split and giving the vote to Cheney.

One of the most interesting dynamics of this election has been watching the Dems learn how to be a national party again. In Canada, it would be unthinkable for even second- and third-tier parties to not run candidates in every riding (the notable exception being the BQ.) Hell, the Greens manage to run in every riding.

I was shocked, in 2004, when I was told that my family in New York state were unable to vote for a Dem because there simply wasn't a candidate on the ballot. My father was told he should fill out his absentee ballot for the local Republican, who we wee told "wasn't a bad guy." Needless to say, my father will never, ever vote for a Republican.

This year, the Dems have run a strong campaign with competitive candidates across the country, a vindication of Dean and the netroots' "50-state strategy." We can argue over whether or not the Dems have managed to take advantage of every aspect of the GOP collapse, but that will have to wait until Wednesday. For now, I think the Dems are poised to do well tomorrow.

Assuming, of course, that the votes are actually counted.

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