The Strategic Counsel poll of 1,000 Canadian voters conducted for the Globe and Mail and CTV News, showed voter support for the Conservatives and the opposition Liberals tied at 32 percent....The poll showed support for the left-leaning New Democratic Party at 17 percent, while the Bloc Quebecois, which only campaigns in the French-speaking province of Quebec, garnered 11 percent support.This is highly amusing for me, on a number of levels. First of all, this is the second poll this week to basically show that the preceding nine months might as well not have happened - these poll results are (within the margin of error) essentially the same as election night. There are two notable differences: One is the solid strength of the Green Party, the other is the trends are all opposite, with Liberals doing better and the Cons doing worse.
The second reason this is so amusing is that it supports my long-held conviction that Paul Martin was possily the most worthless Liberal leader of all time. Look at the results: the Liberal Party of Canada is achieving statistically-identical results with effectively no leadership as it did with under his tenure. If the election were held today, these polls show the Liberals would not lose any votes, relative to what they achieved under Paul Martin early this year.
In the best interpretation, we can fairly say Paul Martin had an electoral value to the Liberal party of zero. Of course, considering that Paul Martin led his party to two consecutive electoral defeats (that's what you call major seat losses) one could fairly say Paul Martin actually had a negative value as a leader.
The other news is that both of this weeks' polls show Bob Rae is the Liberal leadership candidate who would do best among the Canadian voters, and that Rae would even do better in Ontario than any of the other candidates. Words... fail me. I literally cannot imagine what has happened to turn Bob Rae's image around so thoroughly in Ontario, considering that by 1995 Rae was only slightly more than Brian Mulroney.
C'mon, Liberals: Ignatieff will lead to a disaster in the next election. Rae's your best bet - and I say that as a guy who'd personally like to see Kennedy win. But we can rest assured of one thing with absolute certainty: No matter which leader the Liberals choose, no matter how bad a campaign the party runs, if Harper is re-elected, it will all be the NDP's fault.