Saturday, June 03, 2006

A NATO Rival?

That's the rather breathless conclusion to this piece in The Toronto Star today:
MOSCOW—After a decade as a largely unknown body bringing together Russia, China and a number of Central Asian states, the Shanghai Co-operation Organization is evolving into a security and political bloc that could become a key global player with the clout to challenge NATO, experts say.

Russian and Chinese leaders praised the organization this week as parliamentary leaders from its six member states met in Moscow ahead of a major SCO summit on June 15 in Shanghai. Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan founded the group as the "Shanghai Five" in 1996 and it was expanded to include Uzbekistan, renamed the SCO and given a written charter in 2001....

At the same time, however, the SCO has increasingly formed the basis for military co-operation between its member states. Last year, more than 10,000 troops from SCO member countries participated in the group's first joint military exercises and another set of war games are planned for next year....

In the run-up to the June summit, SCO members have laid out ambitious plans to increase the group's political role and to consider expanding its membership to more countries, including Iran. Russia and China have blocked efforts to impose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program and Tehran has said it would welcome membership in the SCO. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to attend the June summit.
Now there's an obvious flash point that has some pretty nasty potential: An attack on Iran (as a member of some proto-alliance) that suddenly involves Russia, the 'stans, and China for good measure.

That said, hold your horses. First off, Mainville (the author of this piece) is pretty frequently printed in the Washington (Moonie) Times and the Free Republic. Moreover, one of the quotes cited is the Heritage Foundation. None of the above are credible sources where international security issues are concerned. The Moonie Times in particular has a record of trying to beat the China drum pretty shamelessly. I'm not dismissing this outright - Putin is pretty clearly in favour of expanding Russia's sphere of interest in to Central Asia - but have a sense of perspective, please.

Neither Russia or China wants to give Iran a security guarantee that would put them in direct conflict with the US, for obvious reasons: despite recent improvements, the Americans almost certainly still have the upper hand on China or Russia (though perhaps not China AND Russia.) Moreover, the Russians and Chinese have to be aware of US nuclear superiority.

Outside of the Iranian context, SCO has a number of fascinating possibilities. Much is made of the Chinese-Russian alliance, probably more due to unreconstructed red-baiters in the Pentagon than anything else. More interestingly is that India and Pakistan are also "observer" members - not full members, but interested. Russia has said that India and Pakistan should join simultaneously, much the same way Greece and Turkey joined NATO. This would be an interesting development in South Asia. Of course, as we saw recently, joining a mutual alliance doesn't mean you don't occasionally kill people.

In the medium-term, I honestly can't imagine the SCO posing any kind of rivalry to NATO - the combined members of NATO are richer and better-armed than the combined members of the SCO. Of course, by 2030 both India and China are expected to have economies at least as large as the US. An SCO that contained Pakistan, India, and China would have something like 1/3 of the Earth's people, and a huge geographical size - though much of that would be Russia alone. The SCO also includes 4 nuclear powers at the moment (vs. NATO's 3.) Russia stands to gain hugely as Chinese and Indian economic growth increases demand for Russian resources. Of course, the inclusion of India would also be a blow to the stated US desire to contain China.

Finally, in the furthest realms of speculation, what happens if Turkey decides that siding with Europe and the west is a losing proposition (the EU seems to be unwilling to let brown countries in, after 30 years of pleading by the Turks) and Turkey's government decides to leave NATO and join the SCO? Turkey is already sick of having the EU door slammed in its face, and the slower European growth will make EU membership less interesting than the SCO's economic arrangements. Of course, Turkey would carry over whatever American weaponry they had, dealing a blow to NATO and a godsend to the SCO.

So many interesting possibilities. Assuming it doesn't end in nuclear war.

5 comments:

Ronald Brak said...

Well it all depends on if they can get technology from Doctor No and financial backing from Auric Goldfinger.

Personally I think it is up to us who live in the real world to continue to develop friendships and business relations across the planet until war between China and the U.S. seems as ridiculous as war between England and France today.

john said...

Its a nice theory. Ever read "The Grand Illusion" by Norman Angell?

Brad Delong has written about it frequently. The problem is that trade and mutual dependence don't seem to lessen the chance of major-power war. If anything, they may increase those chances. (See Europe, 1914)

I'm not going to defend a lazily-written post that (as I said) was extremely speculative. But Big War isn't dead yet, and we need to remember that.

Ronald Brak said...

I think this blog is an example of something that is helping to connect people around the world. I am somewhat optimistic that this and other endeavours can contribute towards developing trust between people in different nations. One hundred years ago we had bulk transport of wheat and beef. Now a lot of what gets spread around the world are ideas. One idea that has been slowly gaining acceptance is that human beings are human beings no matter where they are. Sure this idea has been kind of slow catching on, but it's getting there. You are one conduit for this idea, contributing in a small way to making the world a better place.

Sure there are plenty of scared, frightened, paranoid and power hungry people out there who don't live in the real world but rather live in worlds of twisted imagination where people in other countries or of other faiths are not fellow human beings but imaginary monsters or mere cardboard cut-out stereotypes without feelings, hopes and dreams of their own. But I think we have come a long way in fighting these kind of thinking over the past 50 years, although admittedly with some rather large steps backwards along the way.

The world still seems pretty rotten in many ways, and in a lot of places it is, but as an example of how some things have improved I would point to the improved legal status of women in much of the world and the virtual disappearance of legally supported racism.

Anonymous said...

I think what goes around comes around and as "true" history is unfolding, this significantly shows the people of the world (regardless of race) feels there should be a big brother for the "big brothers"?

SCO vs NATO it is bound to happen, especially given the "true" history unfolding before the world's ppl eyes.

All great Nations and empires all come to an end, "Democracy" isn't immune to this either, because the natural laws show what is built up must eventually fall, similar to the thought of "what goes up must come down" and I think big brothers bit off a bite way bigger then they will ever want to let on. Much like the huge cover up of the real effects of Global Warming by the "big brothers" with that said, I believe WMD is Global Warming and this will ignite WW3. Greed = parasitical mind set = global warming = WW3

Anonymous said...

I think what goes around comes around and as "true" history is unfolding, this significantly shows the people of the world (regardless of race) feels there should be a big brother for the "big brothers"?

SCO vs NATO it is bound to happen, especially given the "true" history unfolding before the world's ppl eyes.

All great Nations and empires all come to an end, "Democracy" isn't immune to this either, because the natural laws show what is built up must eventually fall, similar to the thought of "what goes up must come down" and I think big brothers bit off a bite way bigger then they will ever want to let on. Much like the huge cover up of the real effects of Global Warming by the "big brothers" with that said, I believe WMD is Global Warming and this will ignite WW3. Greed = parasitical mind set = global warming = WW3