Saturday, June 10, 2006

The Dubya of the East

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Some 20,000 Taiwanese demonstrated in the capital Saturday, demanding the president resign over allegations some of his relatives engaged in insider trading.

The protest was part of an opposition campaign for a referendum to oust President Chen Shui-bian, whose term ends in 2008....

Although Chen has not been personally implicated in any wrongdoing, opposition leaders say he has lost the dignity to function as president. They have called on him to resign to spare the island more unrest.

"If a president isn't fit to rule, you can recall him. He doesn't have to commit a criminal act," said Ma Ying-Jeou, leader of the main opposition Nationalist Party.

Imagine that. Chen even has Bush-like approval ratings, with only 34% of Taiwanese saying he should complete his term. Another poll says Chen has an approval rating of just 28%, meaning there's at least one leader in the world who envies Bush's popularity. Almost enough to make me believe in Intelligent Design. There are more important issues in the Taiwan straits, of course.

I'm not terribly sure-footed around Taiwanese politics, but the more I read it seems like Chen is caught in the middle between his pro-independence supporters on the one hand, and the fact that any formal attempt at independence would be a disaster for Taiwan on the other. This forces Chen to be nominally pro-independence to appease his base, but unable to deliver substantively on this front for fear of the harm it would do to him and Taiwan.

Sound familiar?

If I were the Nationalists I wouldn't be using this tactic, however. Chen is far more useful in office, where he and his party are unlikely to recover. This would set the stage for a "pan-blue" victory in 2008, just a few months before the Beijing Olympics.

A Nationalist President of Taiwan would take an immense load off of everyone's mind in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics, given that the main fear among some circles has been the DPP (Chen's party) would declare formal independence. This, the theory goes, would prevent China from retaliating against Taiwan and ruin their Olympics. The fact that Beijing has said subduing Taiwan is more important than the Olympics has apparently not dimmed the enthusiasm for this idea.

Were Chen to leave office, of course, its possible the DPP could recover their popularity and win the Presidency again, despite the recent gains by the Nationalists in the Legislative Yuan. My sentiment would be to leave Chen there and have him taint the DPP. After all, the Democrats are trying to keep Tom Delay on the ballot. The same principle should work here, shouldn't it?


Michael Turton said...

You're basically wrong in your reading of the Chen situation. I know you read Kos ... I dairied there on Taiwan explaining the situation: Explaining the Taiwan Mess. Enjoy!

The View from Taiwan

Sun Bin said...

Some said he should be compared to Clinton.:)

They have a point. They are both good at legal dialectics.
Clinton, "I did not have sex with that woman."
Chen, "My wife did not take the gift certificate DIRECTLY from those people."

But there is some difference even in this comparison. Having sex with an ugly woman is not a crime, but taking bribe is, directly or indirectly. (However, since there is no concrete proof for the Sogo certificate case up till now. Chen's confession only raised the skepticism)