Zhu Followup

Some may remember that Gen. Zhu Chenghu threatened the US with nuclear war last summer, something I've dealt with previously. My argument has basically been that Zhu was full of hot air, and we couldn't take him as a serious example of Chinese thinking. via ArmsControlWonk, we find that Zhu has recently been punished for his outburst last summer:

BEIJING - A Chinese general has been punished for telling reporters that China could use nuclear weapons in the event of U.S. intervention in a conflict with Taiwan, military sources said Thursday.

Major General Zhu Chenghu received an "administrative demerit" recently from the National Defense University, which bars him from promotion for one year, said the sources, who requested anonymity.

"He misspoke," one source said. "But the punishment could not be too harsh or we would be seen as too weak toward the United States."

An administrative demerit is the second lightest punishment on a scale of one to five, but still potentially damaging to an officer's career. The lightest is an administrative warning, while the heaviest is expulsion.

So that's good news. However, I'm getting more and more troubled by the nationalist rumblings coming out of China:

BEIJING (Reuters) - China should prepare for enduring conflict with Japan and embrace nationalism as a source of social unity, a senior commentator with the ruling Communist Party daily wrote against a backdrop of steadily worsening bilateral ties....

Lin Zhibo, a deputy director of the commentary department at the People's Daily, the ruling party mouthpiece, writes the conflict between the two countries is about their future status, as well as their past.

"The fundamental conflict between China and Japan now is that China is rising, and Japan does not want to see China rise. This conflict is long-term and cannot be altered by the will of the Chinese people," writes Lin.

And we see again the confluence of Confucian and nationalist thought:

Ma and other Chinese commentators warned of dangers from growing popular nationalism largely directed against Japan. But Lin, in his latest paper, says that friction with Japan may even have benefits for China and enlists Mencius, the Confucian sage who lived 2,300 years ago, to boost his argument.

"It's not a totally bad thing to have an enemy country," Lin writes. "Mencius said 'Without foes and external threats a state will surely perish'. Having an enemy country and external peril forces us to strengthen ourselves."

Nationalism may be the only belief that can maintain China's unity and stability in a time of tumultuous change, writes Lin, seeming to discount the holding power of the official Marxist ideology.

"Today in China an ideological vacuum is emerging," writes Lin, citing rapid economic growth, social fragmentation and external pressures. "What can China rely on for cohesion? I believe that apart from nationalism, there is no other recourse."

The Party has been encouraging a more militant form of Chinese nationalism for some time now, but this is starting to get truly frightening. What we're seeing is the rise of more pugnacious forms of nationalism all across Asia, including India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and yes China itself. This is not exactly a recipe for long-term peace and stability.

It would be a real tragedy for the world if Asia ended up replaying the nationalist conflicts of Europe's 20th century.