Newsflash

Thank God for Larry Johnson - he's discovered that in some cases, teenagers and young adults don't follow the advice of their elders! This would be simply amusing if he weren't writing about China/Taiwan.

What are the attitudes of Taiwan's young people toward reunification and mainland China?

To answer that question, I recently spent two months traveling throughout Taiwan, talking with young people from 13 to 30. Their answers, overall, show an attitude in stark contrast to the conciliatory attitude of Taiwan's top political parties and suggest a much more forceful stand for independence, one that would bring Taiwan into sharp conflict with China.

I did formal interviews with 50 people, from Taipei, the modern capital in the north, to Tainan, the ancient capital in the south. My subjects, for the most part, were high school and university students but also included young workers and business people. The interviews were in English, which is widely spoken, and even when language was somewhat a barrier, many of the young people were still eager to express their views.

Of the 50 people, only six said they would like Taiwan to become part of mainland China.

Johnson is advocating that the US defend Taiwan from any mainland agression. I'm not unsympathetic, but anyone who thinks that the US is going to retain the military edge against China for another generation (i.e., when Johnson's interviewees have grown up) is dreaming. Probably well before 2020, China will be able to take Taiwan if it really wants to. The only two important variables will be a) whether China wants to, and b) whether Taiwan still doesn't want to. I've said before, if the mainland makes substantive progress towards democracy, I think you'll see a lot of Taiwanese start changing their minds.