When We Get To Plan J, We're In Trouble

So plan A for the Liberals was: Wait until December, and hold an election after Gomery has issues his final report. (And, incidentally, the worst evidence would have faded from the public's mind.) Well, that turned out to not work so well. The BQ and the Conservatives both said no deal, and the NDP doesn't have the numbers to keep this government in power.

So, we go to Plan B: Keep the 38th Parliament alive long enough to get a vote on the budget. The budget is pretty popular (or at least inoffensive) so the Liberals were at least hoping to look good losing, and making the opposition look bad winning.

Well, even that might not work - the Liberals might last a week, but Parliament may cease to function long before then. So, we're starting to see Plan C: Demonize the Conservatives and the Bloc for rushing a confidence vote. Oddly, this might actually work. Poll keep showing that most people really do believe the BQ and Harper are simply doing this for their own political gain. And Valeri's talking point, repeated a few times, that the Opposition won't take Yes for an answer, is pretty good.

Here's the question: Will the public punish the Conservatives for forcing this election? How badly? Sweet Jesus, could we get another minority government? Like Mike in the comments, I would really hope for a Liberal minority where the NDP has a true balance of power. (Actually, I hope for Prime Minister Layton, but that's probably just me...)

One thing I'd worry about, if I were a Conservative: If you force this election, and don't unseat the government - or worse yet, lead to a strengthened Lib/NDP coalition - you can kiss the reunited Party goodbye. It's already a bit of an unnatural alliance between old Reformers and more moderate Ontario Tories. If you blow this chance, I'd expect Harper to resign.