Conservatives: Have the advantage of no longer being quite so terrifying. Also, the advantage of not being quite so egregiously corrupt. However, the Conservatives had some of these advantages last election too - until they opened their mouths, and shit like "notwithstanding clause" came out. If Harper can keep his caucus muzzled (with the exception of Belinda and
Liberals: Well, the latest polls look bad for the Liberals. Really bad. Martin's unfavourables are higher than his favourables, and he is personally being associated with general Liberal corruption. I really can't see this Liberals surviving the next election. Certainly, I expect Martin to lose his leadership. I don't know - when is the next opportunity for the Liberals to change heads?
Bloc: Obviously going to sweep Quebec. The Liberals are discredited, the Conservatives are laughable in Quebec, the only hope of a competition in Quebec comes from some hopeful reports that the NDP has become the federalist protest vote. Still, I would be amazed if Gilles didn't get a clean sweep in Quebec. This would enrage me, however, because it means once more that the BQ will get more seats than the NDP despite getting about half the popular vote.
Finally, my favourites, the NDP: God help me, I really don't know. I've approved of Jack's strategies, but frankly, I think the NDP's going to do poorly again in this election. Not because of Jack, per se, but because the national press is so hysterically hostile to the NDP. Reading the reaction to the NDP budget deal was like reading Pat Robertson talking about Islam - "Jack Layton is the Devil! Ah!!!!!!" I think the NDP has a number of things going for it - but Jack is going to have to a) show the Canadian people he can look like a leader, and b) respond to the incredible volume of bile that will be heading his way. The NDP is going to be shit on from the Post, Globe, Bloc, and Conservatives. If Jack can stand up to that, I think he'll do well.
So overall, I'm gonna make my second blog prediction (my first was about oil prices, and is still holding up well.) I think we'll see a Conservative minority government (I'd bet somewhere between 125-150 seats.) The Liberals are going to have less than 100 seats, and the Bloc 75. The big question for me is what happens with the left. If the Liberals spend the next month falling in the polls, I think there will be a lot of growth in the NDP numbers. My big hope is that we don't see a repeat of '88, when the Lib/NDP vote was greater than Mulroney, but vote splitting gave Mulroney another majority government.
In any case, I actually hope I'm wrong, and would almost like to see a Conservative majority, just for the stability it would have. If only I didn't think they would ruin the country...
(edited to correct a mistake. I keep confusing Scott Brison and Peter MacKay...)
1 comment:
I'm not quite as pesimsitic as you - the Toronto Star came out infavour of the NDP-Liberal deal. Reports from the Left coast indicate that the NDP could actually take seats away from the Cons this time. And I too have heard of the rise in NDP favours in Quebec. But the latest polls show the Libs ahead in Ontario 44% to 33% for the Cons - better than before the scandal! Vote rich Ontario isn't falling for Harper's naked power grab.
My prediction: Another Liberal minority, but this time with the NDP holding the balance of power - less seats for the libs, but more for the NDP and the cons maybe gaining 1 or two seats (although they may in fact lose seats - the unwanted election bug may bite them in the ass). That could mean good things for Canada, because the Bloc is mostly left as well and certainly wouldn't vote with the Cons on anything except to bring down the government.
I could even see a 1 seat Liberal majority if the polls in Ontario hold..
Whatever the outcome, I don't think the Cons are going to do as well as they think...I know Conservatives here in Ottawa that will vote Green because of Harper's behaviour!
Mike
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