Containing China?

Interesting article on the historical and present day problems of containing China. But frankly, I don't think the author's right when he says:

But such analogies as 19th century balance of power politics or NATO's containment of the former Soviet Union don't work. Reason: Never before has the rise of a nation occurred while it was so intertwined economically with those countries that might wish to slow it down. And since China seems set on expanding its global role – economically, politically, and militarily – the rising nation's antagonists would be best served by working together.

This can't be true, can it? Late 19th century Germany was extremely closely intertwined with France and the UK, as was the US at the time. Frankly, a number of theories say that major powers can only rise when there's a hegemonic power to keep things calm, allowing the smaller powers to concentrate on growing their power.

The article is slightly tarnished when Garten ends with the usual pro-globalization tripe:

But the world has become much smaller, the web of communications and relationships much tighter, the importance of enlarging the pie rather than just carving it up much clearer than ever before. Unless a new order is negotiated, the world will risk entering a frightful period where damaging political and economic turmoil is no longer a far-fetched prospect.

Okay, this just isn't true. Proportionally speaking, on any measure you can name, the world was far more "globalized" before World War I. This is especially the case when you look at something like labour, which was far more mobile before the war. But even finance capital was at least as mobile during the era of the gold standard then it is now. So the whole idea that we're in a radically new era of globalization is patently false.

However, the second part of Garten's paragraph - "Unless a new order is negotiated, the world will risk entering a frightful period where damaging political and economic turmoil is no longer a far-fetched prospect..." - is a sentiment I agree with whole-heartedly. We do need to think of a new world order. I for one think that the people like Hugo Chavez are probably closer to the answer than Prof. Garten of Yale, but then who the hell am I, right?