Friday, April 29, 2005

Good News, Bad News

So, the good news first: Jack seems to have saved the government, judging by the latest poll results (from the 24th to 27th.) Further, by a 2:1 ratio, Canadians want to wait for an election.

Poor Stephen Harper. With his proclamation that he's going to put the government "out of its misery", he's painted himself in to a corner. Either he forces an election, and gets punished in the polls, or he waits and gets punished by his own party.

It's also bad news for Jack in this poll - but that's to be expected. Any increase in Liberal support was likely to come at the expense of the NDP. The NDP is back below 20% support. This brings me back to one of my pet peeves about Canadian politics - the NDP and the Bloc continually get similar percentages of the popular vote, but the NDP has half the seats. Damn you, single-member pluralities!

The more I think about it, the less likely (not that it was ever likely) that the NDP does well in the next election. The only way the NDP does well is a total Liberal collapse in Ontario, but that's just as likely to help the Conservatives, not the NDP. I wonder what alignment of the planets would be necessary for the NDP to do well? (Aside from the return of Brian Mulroney. Please God, not that!)

No comments: