As Surprising As The Sunrise

The International Energy Agency calls for oil rationing. Some interesting points in the article:

The threshold for rationing discussed is relatively small, a drop in capacity of only 1-2 million barrels per day. This suggests to me that the IEA is acknowledging that we're essentially at Peak Oil, that any drop in capacity can't be made up somewhere else.

Also, this note was interesting:

Energy prices rose on Thursday, with US petrol and heating oil hitting all-time highs. US crude oil rose above $55.15, up $1.16 in mid-afternoon trade. The rise was propelled by a Goldman Sachs report that said oil prices "may have entered the early stages of a super-spike period", which could lead to prices of $105.

I don't know about you, but "super-spike period" sounds like Peak Oil to me. The sad thing is that none of this stuff would be necessary if we had taken the lessons of the 1970s seriously.

At the same time, oil consumption is really dictated by two paradoxes. The first paradox is that any decline in consumption is likely to fuel more consumption - that is, a decline in price leads to more buyers. At the same time, an increase in the price of oil doesn't lead to rationing, it leads to more exploitation of less valuable oil sources, such as ANWR and the Tar Sands. The point is, we can't get off oil in increments. Any marginal decline in our demand is likely to fuel increased demand in Asia and the third world. We need a political committment to get us all the way off oil, and soon.