Asian Space Race in the Offing?

So, in 2003 China put it's first man in space. This makes it the first Asian nation with an independent manned-launch capability. The Shenzhou craft is actually quite impressive, though some have mocked it as a redone Soviet castoff. This ignores two things: First, the "Soviet Castoff" they're mocking is the Soyuz, the most reliable and cost-effective spacecraft ever invented by any nation. Secondly, the Chinese have made a number of important improvements. To my eyes, The Shenzhou is likely to be a workhorse for deep space work - that is, lunar exploration and space station work. James Oberg (one of the best space experts in the US) wrote about this a while back in Scientific American, but unfortunately his article isn't online. However, his testimony to Congress is, where he goes over many of the strengths of the Shenzhou craft. He also, sadly, engages in a bit of tired "Yellow Peril"-style alarmism at the end, so skip that part. On the technical stuff, Oberg is excellent.

Anyway, the Chinese manned launch was followed by a humiliating launch failure by the Japanese, which they finally fixed with a successful launch of their H-2A rocket on the weekend. Now, the Japanese are saying they want a lunar base by 2025. Japanese corporations have been saying these kinds of things for a long time, but I have hope this time they'll be spurred on by competition from China - and when we recognize that India is also in the mix, we have a recipe for a very exciting time for us space nerds.

China, of course, doesn't have the money yet to afford a NASA-style moon launch. The Chinese government's budget, despite the nominally Communist regime, is far less (as a share of GDP) than Canada's, or the US's for that matter. China has a number of pressing domestic problems that will force it to raise revenue in the future, however. It's possible that, given increased government revenue (from GDP growth and increased collection) and maintaining their current (relatively) low military spending, the Chinese could, in say a decade, be able to mount an Apollo-style program. Until something like that happens, I would bet on India and Japan to maintain their lead in space technology overall, though China might gain an edge in manned space activities.

And does anyone think that Europe and the US are going to stand by while all this is going on? The EU already has an excellent heavy-lift rocket, the Ariane 5. That puts them tied for first with the US, in terms of sheer lift capability. Admittedly, the EU doesn't have manned capability, but I wonder if the EU (and Japan, as well) couldn't put something together in relatively short order. After all, it's estimated Japan could have a nuclear weapon in 18 months, if they wanted. Surely a crash program to duplicate an Apollo/Soyuz-style capsule could get results quickly.

Interesting times...